2021 Prospect Analysis (Wide Receiver)

2021 Prospect Analysis (Wide Receiver)

Ahead of the NFL Draft, I wanted to highlight some players that stuck out to me and seemed like they could be a good fit for the Pittsburgh Steelers, either as a draft pick or as a free agent after the draft.  This series looks to provide some analysis on what I saw from these players, what I liked and didn't like and if they might be worth their current stock. 

Position: Wide Receiver

• Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC, JR, 6’1”, 195 lbs
• 
  Bio
• HS: His father won Mr. Universe twice and Mr. World 3 times as a bodybuilder in the ‘80s, brother Equanimeous played at Notre Dame from 2015-2017, Former HS All-American, League MVP, First-Team All-State
• FR: Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year Honorable Mention, 12 games, 5 starts, 60 receptions, 750 yards (12.5 YPC), 3 TDs
• SO: 2019 All-Pac-12 Honorable Mention, 13 games, 12 starts, 77 receptions, 1,041 yards (13.5 YPC), 6 TDs, 1 rushing TD
• JR: First-Team All-Pac-12, Team Captain, 6 games and starts, 41 receptions, 478 yards, 7 TDs
• Career:  30 games, 23 starts, 178 receptions, 2,270 receiving yards, 16 TDs, 1 rushing TD
• Hands- Good and bad here, St. Brown displayed the ability to make catches away from his body, could get up and come down with the ball at times.  Unfortunately he also had a drop issue throughout his collegiate career.  Not every drop was bad, but there were some that just glanced off his hands and would turn into interceptions.  They appear to be more of a concentration issue as opposed to just weak hands, so there is hope that this can improve. (B-)
• Route Running- St. Brown is a very good route runner.  While his route tree wasn’t the most diverse because of his lack of long speed.  He was still able to execute routes effectively and was smooth getting both into and out of his breaks.  He can run just about any routes you need him to and he excelled particularly in the short to intermediate ranges. (A-)
• Release- Hard to gauge because he had less than 150 career snaps against press coverage in college.  So he generally had a good release off the line of scrimmage.  As is generally the case, his release was much better from the slot as opposed to the outside.  He did have some trouble separating on the outside and this can be linked back to his release. (C+)
• Vertical Receiving/Speed- St. Brown’s 40 time ranks in the 42nd percentile among recently drafted receivers.  He’s clearly not a burner and wasn’t used as one in college.  He does have some deceptive speed and had some nice reps on tape of getting to the second level on 8 routes (seam) that resulted in some bigger gains.  One of his best plays was a touchdown against Notre Dame in 2019 where he blew past the second level and safeties before making a one handed style touchdown grab.  Overall though, definitely not a blazing fast guy. (C+)
• Contested Catch- Didn’t find a ton of instances of contested catching on tape.  Most of the time, when taking his drop issues into consideration, it felt like he was a guy that could make these catches, but not on a consistent basis.  That being said, the game winning touchdown he caught against UCLA in the final minute was a great display of body positioning and hands.  Going back to his drop issue, if he can corral that a bit, he can be a dependable target in tight spaces. (B)
• YAC Ability- It’s not going to jump off the tape at you, but St. Brown can make guys miss in the open field and does have some deceptive speed.  However, he’s not going to be a guy that defenses are going to actively highlight as a dangerous player after the catch.  But he has his moments. (B)
• COD Skills- St. Brown can stick his foot in the ground and can change direction quickly, both with the ball in his hands and without it.  He can run most routes efficiently and gives his quarterback a reliable option that knows what he’s going to be running out there. (B+)
• Competitive Toughness- Tough player willing to go over the middle and take hits to make plays.  He doesn’t play as big as he probably should be and that may require him to get on an NFL training regiment.  But there is some strength to be had and he will do whatever the team needs him to do. (B)
• Blocking Skills- While he’s not going to be mistaken for Hines Ward in his heyday.  St. Brown does a good job of making his blocks on cornerbacks and was used at times to help out by pulling as a lead blocker.  Was pretty instrumental as a blocker on the perimeter for receiver screens. I feel like there’s a bit of physicality missing, but he gets the job done. (B+)
• Overall- 
• Pros: 
• Productive throughout college career
• Experience in the slot and on the outside
• Great body control and route running ability
• Solid blocker
• Ceiling: Willie Snead
• Cons: 
• Lacking in long speed
• Has issues with drops
• Doesn’t play as strong as he should
• Has practically no experience against press coverage
• Only lined up on the left side senior season at least
• Floor: Demarcus Ayers
• Projection: R3
• Final Thoughts: Amon-Ra St. Brown should soon be following in the footsteps of his brother with the Packers.  St. Brown finished a productive college career with good numbers and solid tape to back it up.  While he’s really not outstanding in any particular area outside of running his routes.  St. Brown doesn’t really have any significant issues with his game outside of a drop problem which is more of a concentration problem as opposed to a physical one.  Personally I didn’t love his tape and other players on the USC offense stuck out to me more than St. Brown in every game.  While I don’t think he’s going to bust in the NFL, he’s got a particularly low floor in my mind.  I think you are getting at best, a low to mid level #2 receiver and I don’t know if I would bother spending a third round pick on a receiver this year if I am the Steelers. (B)
• Sources
• @Notre Dame (2019)
• UCLA (2019)
• @UCLA
• Dax Milne, BYU, JR, 6’1”, 190 lbs
• 
  Bio
• HS: Played in 3 state championship games in HS, was a 2nd team 6A All-State Selection in 2017
• FR: 10 games, 3 starts, 10 receptions, 69 yards, 1 TD, 9 rushes, 26 yards
• SO:  13 games, 21 receptions, 285 yards, 2 TDs, 4 rushes, 16 yards
• JR: 12 games, 10 starts, 70 receptions, 1,188 yards, 8 TDs, 11 rushes, 67 yards
• Career: 35 games, 13 starts, 101 receptions, 1,542 yards, 11 TDs, 24 rushes, 106 yards
• Hands- Strong hands can catch the ball away from his body.  Milne consistently displayed an ability to snag the ball and hang onto it.  He finished his college career with 6 drops and despite the fact that he had 3 in his final season.  It’s worth noting that he only had 58 of his 149 career targets in his freshman and sophomore seasons.  So he decreased his drop percentage in his final season.  (B+)
• Route Running- Definitely has to be the best part of Milne’s game.  Is very crisp and efficient with his feet and does a good job of creating leverage with his body.  Quite physical at the top of his route and can give himself some extra space with the ball coming his way.   Has a great understanding of his expanded route tree and was nuanced enough to know what defenders were expecting him to do, therefore allowing him to counter off of that to get open. (A)
• Release- Does a very good job getting off the line of scrimmage, last season BYU used Milne in a variety of ways.  He was lined up outside on both sides and was used in the slot on both sides as well.  He is well versed and understands what is needed to get off the line of scrimmage quickly so he can get out into his route. (A-)
• Vertical Receiving/Speed- Milne was used a lot down the field in BYU’s offense last season.  While he did a really good job and showed that he wasn’t just a one-trick-pony winning contested catches down the field on a higher level than most.  He’s lacking the top end speed and separation skills needed for a dynamic receiver that can truly do it all. If he’s winning down the field it won’t be because of his raw athleticism. (C)
• Contested Catch- Quite good, despite not having a ton of catches, the Boise State game from this past season is an excellent display of what Milne can do in jump ball situations.  He will always come back to the ball, fight for the ball and squeeze it tight when it gets to him.  One of his best attributes and one of the better receivers in this draft class when it comes to contested catching ability. (A-)
• YAC Ability- It’s not great, he’s got some deceptive moves, but for the most part he’s not going to burn guys in the open field and isn’t slippery.  His testing indicates that he’s not an overly explosive runner and has slightly below average long speed.  Unless you get him into the open field or you have busts, he’s not going to have big plays that aren’t of the contested catch variety. (C-)
• COD Skills- Milne tested well in the shuttle run and displayed some really good whip routes (where you start a crossing route then run back outside), so he has the ability to stick his feet in the ground and can change direction quickly. (B+)
• Competitive Toughness- Prior to 2020 Milne was primarily a slot receiver and was used frequently in the middle of the field.  Though that did change, Milne has a tough fighting mindset when facing jump balls, he fights hard as a blocker and did a good job of holding his own against bigger players despite the fact that he hadn’t played outside since he was in high school. (B)
• Blocking Skills- Milne is an able and willing blocker, but wasn’t really used in the same facet as other guys that are strong blockers.  If he puts on some muscle he could probably develop into a solid blocking wide receiver, otherwise he’s just the average blocking receiver right now. (B-)
• Overall- 
• Pros: 
• Excellent route runner
• Good contested catch ability
• Strong hands with few drops
• Played all over the field, both sides, slot and outside
• Ceiling: Brian Hartline
• Cons: 
• One year wonder production
• Lacking top end speed to be dynamic down the field
• Not super elusive in the open field, not a YAC guy
• Racked up big numbers against weaker competition, had a lot of passes delivered on a platter by Zach Wilson last year
• Floor: A poor man’s Donald Jones
• Projection: R3
• Final Thoughts: Dax Milne is probably going to be a great benefactor of Zach Wilson’s breakout 2020 campaign.  But, that would also be disrespectful to a player that broke out in a similar, yet quieter fashion.  Mline’s breakout came after being a situational slot receiver only.  By the time the 2020 season ended, he was being used all over the field, both in the slot and outside.  Wilson’s fantastic talents, combined with Milne’s crisp route running made for a lot of easy completions and conversions.  But, Milne isn’t just a great route runner, he can really make some nice plays with defenders all over him in coverage.  While contested catching isn’t good enough to make a receiver a quality one on its own, Milne’s ability to run routes and catch just about anything that comes his way should help him become a quality part of any offense that he is put into.  While he is lacking the upside of other dynamic receivers in this draft, he does have more upside than other guys I have looked at this year, but the upside doesn’t come without some risk.  Milne played a bunch of poorer competition and only had one year of good production, so he is not a sure thing. (B)
• Sources
• Louisiana Tech
• @Boise State
• @Coastal Carolina
• Nico Collins, Michigan, SR, 6’4”, 218 lbs *2020 Opt out*
• 
  Bio
• HS: Former 4 star prospect, ranked #21 WR in the country, All-State player as a senior
• FR: 4 games, 1 start, 3 receptions, 27 yards, 9.0 YPC
• SO: Honorable Mention All-Big-Ten, Most Improved Player (team award), 13 games, 11 starts, 38 receptions, 632 yards, 16.6 YPC, 6 TDs
• JR: Michigan OPOY winner, Honorable Mention All-Big-Ten, 12 games, 10 starts, 37 receptions, 729 yards, 19.7 YPC, 7 TDs
• SR: Opted out of 2020 season, then chose not to return
• Career: 29 games, 22 starts, 78 receptions, 1,388 yards, 17.8 YPC, 13 TDs
• Hands- Strong hands, low drop percentage for a guy that runs a lot of deeper routes with lower percentage reception opportunities.  Can catch the ball away from his body and does a good job of keeping the ball away from DBs trying to wrestle the ball away from him. (A-)
• Route Running- Not a smooth route runner at all, not in terms of his movement fluidity and speed.  Felt very slow on his routes and struggled to get separation of any kind from man coverage.  Could find the holes in the zone coverages he faced, but just generally struggled to get away from coverage. (C)
• Release- Poor, he’s lacking a consistent get off.  No real quickness to his release and while his build up speed is good, he takes too long to get going. Big part of his separation issues, which won’t improve if he doesn’t get off the line faster. Press coverage gave him fits. (D+)
• Vertical Receiving/Speed- Long speed is actually adequate, once he gets going he can actually stack the cornerbacks with decent regularity.  His ability to control and position his body, coupled with his strong hands make him a dangerous receiver down the field. (B+) 
• Contested Catch- Dare I say elite, Collins had some really impressive plays on tape while being draped by a defensive back.  Didn’t matter if it was an out route, simple curl or a fade.  Collins did an excellent job hand fighting and positioning himself to make the tough grab.  There are some excellent highlight reel plays in his tape.  Think about the ways Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson got big plays down the field, Collins will do so in a similar fashion. Definitely his best attribute. (A)
• YAC Ability- Because of his lack of quickness, he’s not going to be a danger for explosive YAC plays, unless he catches the ball in stride down the field.  Beyond that he’s going to be a little tougher to bring down in the open field just because of his size and really nothing else. (C+)
• COD Skills- It feels like he’s missing definitive breaks on routes, rounding off his assignment, rather than cutting it off the way you typically do on most routes.  Feels kind of sluggish getting out of his breaks. (C)
• Competitive Toughness- Collins is a big receiver at 6’4” and nearly 220 pounds and he really plays like it. Tough at the catch point and physical in his routes. (B+) 
• Blocking Skills- Effort was just lacking in general.  However when he needed to block on screen passes or plays where the ball carrier was near him, he did a good job.  Michigan should have asked him to do so more often. (B)
• Overall- 
• Pros: 
• One of the best at contested catches in this draft
• Great size and frame
• Deceptive longspeed
• Strong hands 
• Ceiling: N’Keal Harry
• Cons: 
• Opted out of 2020 season
• Lacks top end athleticism and quickness
• Not a good route runner
• Contested Catching is his best attribute
• Floor: Andre Holmes
• Projection: R3
• Final Thoughts: I would have really liked to have seen Nico Collins in 2020.  Could he have developed into a better route runner?  Right now Collins has one really good feather in his cap and that is that he is a great combative catcher.  While that’s traditionally not the only thing you need to be good at to last in the NFL, it’s hardly a bad thing to be good at it and Collins is far and away great at it.  The issue I keep coming back to is that he doesn’t separate very well and just feels sluggish in his movements during the play.  He’s not a great YAC guy, can’t separate and unless he really gets going, he’s not going to burn you either.  If he can’t improve in some of these other areas, he’s never going to be a starting receiver.  But if he can at least improve somewhat he should have a decent career as a #2 or #3 receiver. At the very least he should be a solid red zone weapon. (B-)
• Sources
• SMU (2018)
• @Ohio State (2018)
• Florida (Bowl Game)
• Tutu Atwell, Louisville, JR, 5’9”, 165 lbs
• 
  Bio
• HS: Former 3 star recruit, totaled over 5,500 yards of offense during senior year playing QB
• FR: 12 gam
  
  
  
  es, 3 starts, 24 receptions, 406 yards, 16.9 YPC, 2 TDs
• SO: First-Team All-ACC, 13 games, 10 starts, 69 receptions, 1,272 receiving yards, 18.4 YPC, 11 TDs, 9 rushes, 33 yards
• JR: 9 games, 6 starts, 46 receptions, 13.6 YPC, 7 TDs
• Career: 34 games, 19 starts, 139 receptions, 2,303 receiving yards, 20 TDs, 12 rushes, 26 yards, 1 TD
• Hands- Not bad, considering his struggles with drops early in his career.  His drop percentage dropped every consecutive year in his college career and he displayed some impressive snags with his arms over his head. (B+)
• Route Running- Atwell didn’t have a very expanded route tree, running mostly short routes.  But, he did run more slot fades and other deep corners more often than you might expect and he executed them pretty well, however he is lacking some nuanced ability to his route running. Didn’t really run double moves or combination routes (like smash routes). (B-)
• Release- This one is hard to grade, he barely faced press coverage, especially last season.  It’s hard to tell how he will fare against it, though he did get off the line quickly and without incident when he wasn’t pressed. (B)
• Vertical Receiving/Speed- Atwell tested well in terms of speed and agility.  So he will be able to get down the field in a hurry, that is good.  His size however makes his usage as a deep receiver questionable, because the window the quarterback has to fit the ball into is very small.  Coupled with that, is the fact that he will be battling bigger defenders on deep passes, it’s hard to justify him as a deep threat unless you can get him matched up on a linebacker or slower DB. (C+)
• Contested Catch- Although he actually has above average contested catch numbers, Atwell almost certainly won’t have that same success at the NFL level as he deals with bigger defenders on a more regular basis.  But you have to love that he does fight for the ball. (C+)
• YAC Ability- Starting with the fact that he is smaller, that makes him harder to tackle in the first place.  Then combine that with some really good speed and agility and you’ve got a slippery receiver in the open field.  While he doesn’t have the strength or size to grind out extra yards, he usually doesn’t need to because of his prowess to make guys miss in the open field. (B+)
• COD Skills- Excellent, this guy can stop and turn on a dime.  Even though his route running is still a work in progress on it’s own.  He can still cut and change direction quickly. (B+)
• Competitive Toughness- You can’t make it this far at that size if you aren’t tough.  But, that doesn’t mean he’s going to be able to be a bulk, volume receiver, he can play his part and should be used as a gadget type receiver with some big play upside. But asking him to take hits and be targeted 100+ times a season is not likely a recipe for success. (B)
• Blocking Skills- If you are an offensive coordinator asking Atwell to block, then you are responsible for everything bad that can happen on that play.  That can’t be considered a good thing, at least he gives it his all. (D-)
• Overall- 
• Pros: 
• Very good athlete with some big play ability
• Solid route runner despite a limited route tree
• Strong hands, drop issues went away last year
• Should have a high floor as a gadget player
• Ceiling: Tavon Austin
• Cons: 
• This guy makes Ryan Switzer look like the Rock
• Massive liability as a blocker
• Won’t be a consistent deep threat
• Contested catching will be harder for him in the NFL
• Floor: Dri Archer at receiver
• Projection: R4-R5
• Final Thoughts: Tutu Atwell is going to be looked at as nothing more than a Gadget player in the NFL.  That’s kind of unfair to him because he put together a really solid career at Louisville and showed that he at least has the potential to be more.  Size is his only glaring weakness and while it is hard to ignore.  He’s a great athlete and was used in college as more than just a gadget player.  Whether or not his other skills translate to the NFL as a vertical receiver or underneath slot option has yet to be seen.  But at the very least if you’re taking Atwell in the later rounds, you can rest knowing that he will at least add a new dynamic to the offense. (C+)
• Sources
• Miami
• @Pitt
• Virginia Tech